Consumer Demand & Supply: Reflections on a Transforming Landscape
I first wrote and published my thoughts on this matter in a blog circa early 2016 on LinkedIn. This was well before some of the major supermarket chain mergers that we have today. Back then, the digital transformation of retail was quite well underway, one could say, and we knowingly or unknowingly also stood at the threshold of what was yet to come.
In retrospect, those observations feel simultaneously prescient and quaintly understated. It’s almost like finding an old photograph that captured the essence of a moment while missing the magnitude of the storm approaching.
In those days, I marvelled at how supermarket giants like Tesco in the UK and Walmart in the US were amassing “hundreds of terabytes” of consumer data without as much as a challenge from the powers that be. Today’s retail analytics systems process that volume in mere hours, with machine learning algorithms parsing patterns we couldn’t have imagined possible. What once seemed like “staggering accuracy” in targeted advertising now appears rudimentary compared to the predictive engines that anticipate our needs before we’ve consciously formed them. Who knows what that future could look like at that rate?
The concerns I raised then about metadata collection and consumer profiling have materialised in ways both expected and surprising. The customer loyalty card, a seemingly innocuous plastic rectangle exchanged for modest discounts has evolved into sophisticated digital ecosystems that track not just what we purchase but how we navigate stores, how long we linger in each aisle, and which promotional displays catch our attention. The “pennies and points” bargain has become increasingly asymmetrical, with retailers harvesting exponentially more valuable insights with each transaction.
Perhaps most striking are the concerns about supplier relationships and the “supply and command” model have played out. The power dynamics I worried about have intensified, though not always in predicted ways. Many of today’s suppliers are expected to integrate with retailers’ forecasting systems, adjust production schedules based on real-time sales data, and sometimes assume inventory risk until the moment of consumer purchase. Some smaller producers have been squeezed out entirely, while others have found unlikely salvation through direct-to-consumer channels that didn’t exist at scale in 2016.
Yet for all that has changed, we still grapple with the fundamental questions: What happens to the “Little People” in this ecosystem? How sustainable is a system where information asymmetry continues to benefit only the largest players? While consumers have become more aware of their data’s value, there’s also been a notable shift from the “ignorance is bliss” days as meaningful alternatives remain elusive for many.
The regulatory landscape has evolved significantly since I wrote my Linkedin post, with privacy frameworks like GDPR and various state laws attempting to rebalance the scales. But technology consistently outpaces policy, and the dance between innovation and protection continues.
As I re-examine these thoughts from years past, I’m struck by both how far we’ve come and the distance yet to travel. The data revolution in retail was never merely about more efficient advertising or inventory management. It was always about a fundamental restructuring of commercial relationships and consumer agency. Although we seem to have made some progress in recognising these stakes, the true reckoning with this new economic reality remains ahead of us.
The question I posed then still resonates today: What kind of society do we want to build?